Examining a Gambler's Claims: Probabilistic Fact-Checking and Don Johnson's Extraordinary Blackjack Winning Streak. • Articles. W. J. Hurley, Jack Brimberg.
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Such aberrations included, for example, error-prone dealers. It appears the authors did not investigate the exact blackjack rules that Don Johnson played against. When I heard Don Johnson speak at the World Game Protection Conference in Las Vegas in , he stated that he coaxed about two or three errors per day from the dealers. This search would have led them to use an accurate blackjack model. It follows that the authors used a distribution whose standard deviation was substantially smaller than the actual standard deviation for blackjack. The correct house edge is 0. Eliot Jacobson, Ph.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Many thanks to the authors for their speedy generosity. I saw the title of this article when I did a recent Google search and I immediately wrote to the authors to request a copy. Had they made this effort, the authors could have gotten the correct distribution for their blackjack simulations with a simple Google search, which would have led them to the wizardofodds. In personal communications, Johnson stated that my results above are consistent with those obtained by his mathematicians. Some content is only viewable by Chance Subscribers. He also stated that based on other more intangible table conditions he sometimes exceeded these quit points. My simulated results were confirmed by the values produced by my Loss Rebate Theorems. These are highly non-optimal boundary conditions. In the actual blackjack game that Johnson played, outcomes cover the entire range from winning 8 units to losing 8 units, after splits, doubles and surrender are taken into consideration. They were very kind to quickly write back and forward a copy. Unfortunately, I discovered that their article is seriously flawed in both fact and methodology. This distribution gives a house edge of 0. There are other sources of positive expected value that the authors did not consider. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}In this note, we examine claims about the exploits of a gambler, Don Johnson a.